CNY weakness will likely persist well into next year – Commerzbank

China published the Q3 GDP after a rare delay last Tuesday and the 20th Party Congress ended over the weekend. The USD/CNY remains firm after the data. Economists at Commerzbank expect the yuan to continue weakening in the coming months.

China's Q3 GDP better than expected but outlook remains sluggish

“China’s economy expanded 3.9% YoY in Q3, up from a meager 0.4% in Q2. In seasonally-adjusted QoQ terms, GDP also grew by 3.9%. But the apparently strong QoQ growth is not something to cheer for, as it was in large part due to the low base in Q2 when the economy contracted 2.7% q/q as a result of Shanghai’s lockdown.”

“Growth will likely be slow in Q4 and H1 2023, as headwinds stemming from the zero-covid policy and real estate downturn persist. Exports also look set to lose steam given the more challenging global backdrop.”

“China’s sluggish economic prospect and the divergence of monetary policy vis-à-vis the rest of the world mean that CNY weakness will likely persist well into next year.”